If you’ve been wondering why Russia has invaded Ukraine, or what Ukraine even has to do with the conflict in Syria, here’s an explanation of all facts about the Russia-Ukraine War that’s happened so far, and what you can expect from the situation going forward.
The big picture
In 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a military surge in Chechnya to protect fellow Russians against Muslim extremists. The move might have made sense at that time—but it also helped launch an ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Why? Because Chechnya is just one small piece of a much larger puzzle known as Eurasia—the expanse from Moscow to Mongolia.
Putin’s personal history
Vladimir Putin was born in Leningrad, USSR on October 7, 1952. He grew up with two siblings, Lyudmila and Yevgeny (who later died in a car accident). After graduating from law school in 1975, Putin became a KGB officer in the Soviet Union. His affiliation with Russia’s security service will help shape his leadership for years to come.
The Ukraine crisis is a game changer
In a recent interview with CNN, former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov warned that the Russia-Ukraine war has already begun, adding that Crimea was simply the first step. That may sound alarming, but it’s also true. After weeks of simmering tensions in eastern Ukraine—where pro-Russian demonstrations flared in cities like Donetsk and Kharkiv—Russia made its move over last weekend. Moscow quickly moved to seize control of key Ukrainian installations like airports, courthouses, police stations, and military bases. Whether by force or intimidation (or both), pro-Russian Ukrainians soon began surrendering their posts to militants that have since been linked to Russian troops.
Instability in the Middle East
What does Putin want? A better question would be what doesn’t he want. It is well known that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a ruthless dictator. His involvement in conflicts such as in Syria and Crimea suggests that his interests lie in power and control rather than peace and democracy. Furthermore, without oil revenues (due to EU sanctions on Russian energy firms), he will be forced to seek new ways to sustain his rule, which are almost always brutal. It seems more likely that instability in the Middle East will enable him to capitalize on a region at war with itself for economic benefit, rather than for peace or democracy. Unfortunately for those living under his regime, it looks like years of oppression might continue as long as there is instability to exploit for economic gain.
A plan for Russian domination
Putin’s plan for Russian domination has been unfolding for more than a decade and it is about to hit a crescendo. Now that he has invaded Crimea, Putin stands at a historic crossroads. But in many ways, Putin has already accomplished his goal by destabilizing other countries and inflaming tensions within Europe. He is following his long-term plan to tear down old alliances that prevent Russia from returning to its place as one of Europe’s leading powers while aggressively reestablishing Russian power on its own terms. Putin’s ultimate ambition may be even grander—to remain president for life and restore some version of Soviet-era domination in Eurasia.
Worried about war breaking out in Europe
Europe has been trapped in a long, deep recession, thanks to Greece and problems in Spain. That leaves many European countries with plenty of debt but not enough revenue to pay it off. With so much at stake economically, tensions are high between Europe and Russia as some fear war could break out. Even worse, experts fear that Putin could expand his empire beyond Crimea into Eastern Ukraine — which would no doubt leave American strategists concerned about Russian capabilities for war in Eastern Europe. That said, there’s no clear path to escalation and Putin is hardly an irrational actor.
An American policy failure
Experts agree that it has a lot to do with American foreign policy toward Russia and its neighbor, Ukraine. The United States spent decades trying to make it hard for Putin’s predecessors to gain influence in Eastern Europe, where Soviet tanks once rattle.
A move towards a new Cold War
Western leaders claim that Russia’s recent incursion into Ukraine is a geopolitical maneuver to regain power and assert its dominance on a global scale. If so, Putin will fail. But there’s an interesting explanation for his country’s behavior that doesn’t involve great geopolitical gambits—instead, it points toward Putin making moves based on his own personal history. In particular, NATO expansion and Western encroachment seem to have triggered a series of events that ended with Putin feeling betrayed by his country’s more pro-Western leaders. This perceived betrayal helped led to Putin taking extreme steps in response and attempting to reassert Russian power by invading Crimea to reestablish control over as much land as possible.
